Oscar Predictions: Who Might Surprise Us?

While the 24th Annual VES Awards made Avatar: Fire and Ash look like a “sure thing” for technical gold, the major acting and picture categories are brewing with potential for massive upsets. If you are looking to place a “fun” bet or just want to win your office pool, here are the surprise wins that experts are watching.

The Upset: Sinners

Despite One Battle After Another being the prestige favorite, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners entered the race with a record-shattering 16 nominations. Historically, movies with this much broad support across all branches (acting, directing, and technical) often pull off a Best Picture win. With +300 odds, it is the primary “value” pick for those betting against the frontrunner.

The Veteran: Ethan Hawke

In the Best Actor race, Timothée Chalamet is the heavy favorite for Marty Supreme. However, a significant spoiler narrative is forming around Ethan Hawke for his role in Blue Moon. As a respected veteran with four previous nominations and zero wins, he is the classic “he’s due” candidate who could benefit if voters feel Chalamet has more time to win later.

The Wildcard: Rose Byrne

While Jessie Buckley is considered a lock for Hamnet, Rose Byrne is the dark horse to watch in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. After winning the Golden Globe for Musical/Comedy, she has significant momentum. Expert pundits have noted that the Academy occasionally rewards high-energy comedic performances as a “palate cleanser” against heavy dramas.

What do you think?

  1. Do you think Sinners can actually leverage its 16 nominations to beat the “prestige” favorite for Best Picture?
  2. Is there a specific “dark horse” actor or actress you think is being overlooked by the betting markets?
Danielle O’Hare
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2 responses to “Oscar Predictions: Who Might Surprise Us?”

  1. daharris82 Avatar
    daharris82

    As someone who genuinely loves watching awards season unfold, I absolutely think Sinners has a real shot at pulling off a Best Picture upset. When a film racks up 16 nominations across acting, directing, and technical categories, that tells me it has deep support within multiple Academy branches. That kind of broad enthusiasm can be more powerful than just “prestige buzz.” Even if One Battle After Another is the safer pick, I’ve seen enough Oscar nights to know that momentum and widespread respect can tip the scale. If voters feel that Sinners represents both artistic ambition and industry-wide craftsmanship, I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see it win. As for the acting races, I love the idea of a veteran narrative shaking things up. Ethan Hawke feels like the kind of actor many Academy voters admire, and the “he’s due” storyline is hard to ignore—especially if some voters think Timothée Chalamet will have plenty more chances. I’m also really intrigued by Rose Byrne as a wildcard. Comedic performances sometimes get underestimated, but when they hit with energy and precision, they can feel refreshing in a lineup full of heavier roles. Personally, I’d keep an eye on both of them as potential spoilers. That unpredictability is honestly what makes the Oscars so fun to follow as a movie fan.

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  2. Lydia K Ball Avatar
    Lydia K Ball

    I’d love to see a Sinners sweep, horror so rarely gets nominations like this!

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